Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Military Officials Disagree on Impact of Surge

The evidence that violence has dramatically decreased in Iraq the last six months is pretty much indisputable. The question is: why? Was it the "surge" of 30,000 troops that did the trick, or was there something else in General Petraus' change in strategy that was equally, if not more, responsible for the improvements.

A news story this morning on NPR (click above for link) makes the argument that it was Petraus' policy of getting the Sunni militias on our side that was the key ingredient, and not the increase in troop levels. As the news article states, the US military negotiated with tribal leaders and are paying local militias to fight for us instead of the insurgents, and this seems to be the thing that turned the tide. (We would have done this in 2003 with the Iraqi Army if Jay Garner hadn't been fired and replaced by Bremer.)

Hmmn. Sounds suspiciously like diplomacy - which the Iraq Study Group said was the key to solving the problem.

The current strategy holds some risk; once we leave, these militias may start shooting at each other again. But it seems to be a risk worth taking. The bottom line: Diplomacy works.

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